The mystery of James Harden's Game 7s

I propose a theory based on the play that ended the Clippers' season.

James Harden delivered another dud in a big spot over the weekend.

In Game 7 in Denver on Saturday night, Harden finished with a measly seven points on 2-of-8 shooting from the floor, an outing that felt wholly unsurprising in retrospect. This, it seems, is what we’ve come to expect with Harden.

Covering this league for over a decade, I’ve taken Harden to task for his playoff failings in the past. Remember his 10-point win-or-go home debacle in Houston against San Antonio back in 2017? It caused a national meltdown, even generating this report from Chris Haynes at ESPN:

I was there for that crater and wrote the game story for ESPN that night. I texted with a Rockets exec about Harden’s performance, and he wrote me back surprisingly quickly: “Just ran out of gas. Very disappointing.”

Eight years later, it feels like the same story. “Very disappointing” is what many Clippers fans might describe Harden — along with some expletives — in the wake of the Clippers’ collapse. Put simply, Harden blew it again.

But the Harden story isn’t that simple.

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Harden’s Game 7 stats

Over the weekend, I ran the numbers to see if Harden is the worst Game 7 performer in NBA history. More specifically, I compared his playoff Game Score to his Game 7 Game Score to see whether his drop-off in performance was steeper than anyone on record (Game Score operates like single-game PER). I suspected it was, or at least close to it.

What I found was so surprising that I had to rerun the numbers. Something had to be wrong. A glitch maybe?

I looked at the numbers again. Still, same story. OK, so here goes. Harden’s playoff Game Score is 17.6. He has played in seven Game 7s, including Saturday’s miserable outing.

If his playoff average is 17.6, what would you guess is Harden’s figure in Game 7s is?

10?

5?

It’s 16.2. A mere 8% decline from his playoff norm.

Which means that Harden’s Game 7 drop-off is no worse than that of Kobe Bryant. Or Dwyane Wade. Or Nikola Jokić.

What was I missing?

Turns out, a lot. This isn’t just small sample size theatre.

Since 1983-84, there have been 95 players who have played in at least five Game 7s, from the Kevin McHales of the world to the Kawhi Leonards of the world.

Of those 95 players, do you know who leads all players in steals per game in Game 7s?

It’s James Harden, with 2.6 steals.

Do you know who averages as many blocks in those games as Tim Duncan, tied for 12th on the list among 95 players?

It’s James Harden, with 1.3 blocks.

What!? I know!

(Sure enough, he had two steals and a block on Saturday.)

One more: Do you know who averages more assists per game than Jokić in those spots and places fourth on the all-time list?

It’s James Harden with 7.9 assists to Jokić’s 7.3. Higher than Larry Bird. And LeBron James. And everyone not named Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook actually.

When you look at his track record, Harden is one of the best Game 7 performers in NBA history in everything except the thing that he’s most known for … scoring.

And Game 7 on Saturday was that in a nutshell.

The Three-Shot Foul Theory

On Saturday, Harden finished with 13 assists to just two turnovers, one of the best playmaking Game 7s this century. In the first quarter, he was everywhere. Blocking Christian Braun at the rim. Swiping it from Jokić in the post. Making a savvy read as the low man to intercept a Jamal Murray pass to Peyton Watson.

It all came apart about midway through the second quarter. The Clippers desperately needed Harden to generate offense, and he was nowhere to be found, going scoreless in the second half with two field goal attempts — both of which were airballs.

He looked completely lost. One play, to me, gave us a game-deciding sequence, and one that I think provides a window into how Harden loses his fastball in Game 7s and probably ended the Clippers’ season.

Down six, Harden got Russell Westbrook on an iso, with his two-time former teammate parked on his left hip forcing Harden right. Harden fought for some daylight but watch what transpired after he shot the ball:

Harden tried to draw the three-shot foul. Didn’t get it. Referee vet Courtney Kirkland swallowed his whistle. Harden was on his ass while the ball bounced right to him but he was on the ground, useless. Gordon scooped up the ball and threw it ahead to Harden’s defender Westbrook, who soared down the floor for a run out. Foul, two shots.

If that wasn’t bad enough, watch what happened next. Westbrook made the first, and then this happened:

Harden forgot to box out Westbrook and then blamed his teammates for some reason. Ugh.

The swing was devastating. If Harden got the three-shot foul call there, it’s a one-possession game. Instead, due to Harden’s blunders, it’s an eight-point game.

Low energy? Lazy? Maybe. But notice how that all started: Harden hunting for a three-shot foul and not getting it. And you know what? That sequence has happened a lot in Harden’s Game 7s.

Harden has been a horrible 3-point shooter in Game 7s in his career. He was 1-of-4 on Saturday, which actually raised his 3-point conversion rate to 13-of-58 (22.4 percent). That’s the lowest 3-point field goal percentage for any player in Game 7s (min. 25 3PA) and he now holds the record for most 3-pointers missed in Game 7s, with 45.

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Harden often seems more interested in trying to get the 3-point foul call than actually making the shot. I can understand why: it’s the most profitable play in the game! Three free throws for a career 86 percent free-throw shooter? Dunks aren’t even worth that much. The league changed the three-shot foul rules because of that guy.

But Harden still gets a ton of them — at least before the postseason started. In this regular season, referees gave him that call quite a bit. After the All-Star break, Harden tallied a whopping 26 fouled 3s while no other player registered more than 11. The Clipper vet generated more three-shot fouls after the break than 28 entire ROSTERS.

In a postseason setting, it’s a different ballgame. He rarely gets that call. Especially in a slow-paced Game 7 when referees tend to let the players decide the game. He certainly didn’t get one on Saturday. And it seemed to completely throw him off his game.

The lost superpower

After thinking about it, as we go deeper into a playoff series, I think Harden’s dependence on the three-shot foul makes him a scoring liability. With so much weight placed into one whistle in a do-or-die atmosphere, I can understand why officials would be reluctant to bail him out on that play and give him an almost automatic three points.

The numbers bear this out. Historically, Harden’s other-worldly ability to draw the three-shot foul tends to abandon him in Game 7s. According to pbpstats.com research, Harden has tallied just two three-shot fouls in seven career Game 7s, or 0.29 per game.

In all other playoff games, his three-shot foul rate is 0.43, marking a 32 percent drop in frequency from those games to Game 7s. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see why his 3-point field goal percentage, in turn, falls from 34.6 percent in the playoffs to 22.4 percent in Game 7s.

Taking away Harden’s three-shot foul weapon is like taking away Anthony Edwards’ hops. They’re still really good, if weakened, players, but they have to adapt and impact the game elsewhere. And you know what? Harden has done that to a remarkable extent, averaging 2.6 steals, 1.3 blocks and 7.9 assists in Game 7s — something no other player has done in those spots.

Harden is a brilliant basketball player, but it’s entirely possible that, without a generous whistle, he gets in his own head on the perimeter. The stepbacks and flails don’t work. He becomes more of a playmaking role player, which simply isn’t good enough for your superstar.

James Harden, above all else, is a scorer, and that’s the problem with Game 7 Harden.

He will go down as one of the best scorers ever, in part because he leveraged the most profitable play in basketball like no other. But Game 7s are different. That same superpower can make you a mere mortal.