The biggest surprise this season? The Miami Heat’s porous defense. What’s going on in the 305?
But first, some big news: I updated the format! I want Tom’s Title Tiers to be a cheat sheet for serious NBA fans. The latest edition, I hope, will achieve that.
For each team, I’m listing several key indicators with notes that will help you be smarter about each contender. Not just how they did, but the nerdy stuff you’ve come to expect at TomTheFinder. Injuries, back-to-backs and the like.
As always, I want to serve my audience and give them my inside look at the NBA title picture. If you want me to add some details to each team, lemme know!
I’m cooking up more stuff for TomTheFinder.com so stay tuned.
A reminder: This is my subjective list based largely on objective data. This is not a pure, analytical ranking. You’re here because you want to know what I think, to get inside my brain a little bit. Consider this a weekly report of what I see on film; what I glean from the numbers; what I hear on the phone; what I read in the news; what I feel..
A reminder that teams are listed within each tier in alphabetical order, not in order of strength. Here’s a quick rundown of each tier:
Tom’s Title Tiers
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ This is a complete team, no notes.
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Just missing that one thing.
⭐️⭐️⭐️ One move away from being one move away.
⭐️⭐️ So much has to break right.
⭐️ Sooo you’re saying there’s a chance.
This week’s featured squad: the Miami Heat.
Some notes on the new details:
Adjusted Ratings are from the indispensable Dunks & Threes. Go subscribe.
Last week = previous Mon – Sun
Week ahead = Mon – Sun
✅ Convincing wins = wins by more than the spread
❌ Upsets = losses as favorites
Spread data via covers.com; injury data via Basketball Reference
OK, let’s get into it.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a complete team, no notes.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ San Antonio Spurs
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 117.4 (1st) | aDRtg 107.9 (2nd) | aNet +9.4 (1st)
🗓️ Last week (4-0): W 119-97 vs UTA | W 112-111 vs DAL | W 124-109 @ SAC | W 125-103 @ POR
✅ Convincing wins: vs UTA (covered by 5.5) | @ POR (covered by 16.5)
❌ Upsets: None 😊
🤕 Key injuries: Tobias Harris (calf) out Monday
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Mon @PHX | Wed @CHI | Fri vs GSW | Sun @UTA
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Fri vs GSW
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 0 😴
📺 National TV: Fri vs GSW (Prime Video)
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Just missing that one thing.
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Boston Celtics
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 114.8 (6th) | aDRtg 110.4 (6th) | aNet +4.4 (4th)
🗓️ Last week (3-1): L 93-109 @ HOU | W 109-102 vs MIL | W 119-80 @ CHA | W 117-97 @ MIL
✅ Convincing wins: @ CHA (covered by 28.5) | @ MIL (covered by 6.5)
❌ Upsets: None 😊
🤕 Key injuries: None 😊
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Tue @PHI | Wed @TOR | Sun vs DAL
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Tue @ PHI | Wed @ TOR
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 1 (Tue @PHI–Wed @TOR)
📺 National TV: Tue @ PHI (NBC)
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Los Angeles Lakers
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 117.0 (2nd) | aDRtg 112.6 (16th) | aNet +4.4 (5th)
🗓️ Last week (4-0): W 138-117 vs MIA | W 116-103 @ SAC | W 124-118 vs POR | W 121-116 @ DET
✅ Convincing wins: All four — best: @ DET as 7.5-point dogs (covered by 12.5)
❌ Upsets: None 😊
🤕 Key injuries: Luka Dončić (back) ruled out Sunday at DET
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Mon @ATL | Wed @MIL | Sun @PHX
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: None
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 0 😴
📺 National TV: None
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Oklahoma City Thunder 📈
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 114.7 (7th) | aDRtg 105.7 (1st) | aNet +9.0 (2nd)
🗓️ Last week (4-0): W 117-112 @ CLE | W 124-116 vs CLE | W 128-97 @ MEM | W 114-75 vs WAS
✅ Convincing wins: All four — best: @ CLE as 4.5-point dogs (covered by 9.5)
❌ Upsets: None 😊
🤕 Key injuries: Chet Holmgren (patellar tendon) out at least 8–10 weeks | Jalen Williams (ankle/fibula) and Cason Wallace (shoulder) out, both surgery
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Tue @POR | Wed @POR | Fri @LAC | Sun @SAC
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Tue & Wed @ POR (two-game set)
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 1 (Tue @POR–Wed @POR)
📺 National TV: Tue @ POR (NBC)
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Philadelphia 76ers
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 111.1 (21st) | aDRtg 111.4 (12th) | aNet −0.3 (16th)
🗓️ Last week (3-1): W 126-107 vs CHI | W 112-106 @ DET | L 95-119 @ CLE | W 127-121 @ CHI
✅ Convincing wins: vs CHI (covered by 8.5) | @ DET as 3.5-point dogs (covered by 9.5)
❌ Upsets: @ CLE (favored by 2.5)
🤕 Key injuries: None 😊
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Tue vs BOS | Thu vs TOR | Sun vs IND
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Tue vs BOS | Thu vs TOR
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 0 😴
📺 National TV: Tue vs BOS (NBC)
Update on the new sideline reporter gig. I did a walkoff interview with LeBron James on Sunday night after the win over Chicago:
Another update: Rose Mary in Chicago is so good. Happy to support my pal and Top Chef champ and podcast extraordinaire Joe Flamm. (Friendly remember to subscribe to Pack Your Knives, my Top Chef podcast recap show!)
Also had a walkoff chat with Tyrese Maxey in Charlotte on Halloween (busted out the festive orange tie):
It’s been fun. I only do walkoff interviews when they win. Getting lots of reps.
Will be on Tuesday vs. Boston and Thursday vs. Toronto. Big week in Philly. Tune in on NBC Sports Philadelphia or League Pass!
⭐⭐⭐
One move away from being one move away.
⭐⭐⭐ Denver Nuggets
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 116.8 (3rd) | aDRtg 112.6 (17th) | aNet +4.1 (7th)
🗓️ Last week (2-1): L 110-118 vs POR | W 128-109 vs TOR | W 114-102 vs IND (neutral site)
✅ Convincing wins: vs TOR (covered by 14.5) | vs IND (covered by 4.5)
❌ Upsets: vs POR (favored by 3.5)
🤕 Key injuries: None 😊
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Mon @HOU | Wed @MEM | Sat @NOP
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Mon @ HOU | Wed @ MEM
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 0 😴
📺 National TV: None
⭐⭐⭐ Detroit Pistons 📉
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 112.4 (16th) | aDRtg 110.2 (5th) | aNet +2.2 (11th)
🗓️ Last week (1-2): W 124-91 @ CHA | L 106-112 vs PHI | L 116-121 vs LAL
✅ Convincing wins: @ CHA (covered by 27.5)
❌ Upsets: vs PHI (favored by 3.5) | vs LAL (favored by 7.5)
🤕 Key injuries: Jalen Duren (hamstring) out at least two more weeks
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Mon vs WAS | Thu @WAS | Sat @MIA
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Sat @ MIA
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 0 😴
📺 National TV: Mon vs WAS (NBCSN) | Sat @ MIA (NBA TV)
⭐⭐⭐ Houston Rockets 📉
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 116.1 (4th) | aDRtg 109.1 (3rd) | aNet +7.0 (3rd)
🗓️ Last week (1-2): W 109-93 vs BOS | L 107-117 vs MIN | L 99-102 @ PHX
✅ Convincing wins: vs BOS (covered by 11.5)
❌ Upsets: vs MIN (favored by 7.5) | @ PHX (favored by 6.5)
🤕 Key injuries: None 😊
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Mon vs DEN | Wed vs GSW | Fri vs UTA | Sun @WAS
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Mon vs DEN | Wed vs GSW
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 0 😴
📺 National TV: Wed vs GSW (ESPN)
⭐⭐
So much has to break right.
⭐⭐ Golden State Warriors 📈
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 114.2 (9th) | aDRtg 110.9 (8th) | aNet +3.3 (9th)
🗓️ Last week (3-0): W 116-113 vs PHX | W 120-100 vs MIA | W 126-119 (OT) vs ORL
✅ Convincing wins: vs PHX (covered by 0.5) | vs MIA (covered by 16.5)
❌ Upsets: None 😊
🤕 Key injuries: None 😊
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Mon vs NOP | Wed @HOU | Fri @SAS
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Wed @ HOU | Fri @ SAS
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 0 😴
📺 National TV: Mon vs NOP (NBA TV) | Wed @ HOU (ESPN) | Fri @ SAS (Prime Video)
⭐⭐ Miami Heat 🔓
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 113.1 (15th) | aDRtg 114.0 (23rd) | aNet −0.9 (19th)
🗓️ Last week (2-2): L 117-138 @ LAL | W 117-116 (OT) @ LAC | L 100-120 @ GSW | W 114-108 @ SAC
✅ Convincing wins: None (neither win covered) 🤷
❌ Upsets: None (both losses as dogs) 😊
🤕 Key injuries: None 😊
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Tue @UTA | Fri vs CLE | Sat vs DET
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Sat vs DET
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 1 (Fri vs CLE–Sat vs DET)
📺 National TV: Sat vs DET (NBA TV)
I’m just as surprised as you are. Take a defensive mastermind head coach in Erik Spoelstra and give him a core of All-Defense stalwarts, you should expect a Top-5 defense. At least.
Ten games in, it’s been a mess. Miami is a bottom-8 defensive outfit adjusted for opponent. I thought facing Sacramento was going to be light work, but they gave up 59 points in the first half and barely won. As my guy Coup Moorhead wrote in his latest dispatch on the team’s site:
Giving up 111.3 points per 100 possessions, given the turnovers forced and Sacramento dipping below 30 percent from three, may not be a premier defensive night to hang your hat on, but it is progress, and progress is something to build on as Spoelstra continues to fine tune his rotation.
Translation: Spo is not happy with effort from his guys. Notably, the suddenly aging Andrew Wiggins got dropped from the starting lineup and Pelle Larsson got the promotion in his place. It’s something. If you weren’t pleased with Giannis Antetokounmpo or Bam Adebayo’s defensive output, you’re not benching them. There aren’t many levers to pull on that front, but Wiggins’ demotion counts as an eye-brow raising adjustment.
The lineup data is ghastly. Same four guys — Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo — with Wiggins. And with Larsson.
Wiggins lineups are -9.1 per 100 possessions and the Larsson ones are +32.0. Tiny sample size, but enough that Spoelstra evidently felt the need to yank a 31-year-old Wiggins who looks like a shell of himself.
I think better days are ahead, and it could start on Tuesday against a shorthanded Utah Jazz team. I don’t think the Heat need a major overhaul. The 3-point regression should be coming. Noisy 3-point conversion rates can skew the numbers in the early going, and the Heat are showing some symptoms that can cure itself over time.
Miami opponents are en fuego from deep so far. Opponents are shooting 39.4 percent on 3s at high volume. If they shot 30.6 percent like Dallas’ opponents thus far, that’s an 11-point swing per game. The conversation around the Miami Heat wouldn’t be nearly as panicky. That should even out as the season marches on.
So that’s one thing.
Another related factor: lucky hail marys (maries?) by opponents.
According to Sportradar, the Heat are forcing the most short clock possessions in the NBA. That’s good! Deeper shot-clock situations usually leads to inefficient grenade throws that rarely go in. But the Heat are allowing the third-highest points per possession (PPP) in these situations, about 15 points per 100 possessions worse than the norm. Not good.
Some of those points are the Heat’s fault. Lackluster closeouts. Napping on the job. But a bunch of them are devastating. Check out this 4-point play last month in Charlotte. Great defense for 23 seconds — Giannis hard show and recover, rotations and energy — and then a backbreaking reach from Tim Hardaway Jr. on Allen who (smartly) embellished the contact and hit the shot:
If Hardaway and Giannis give a safe contest there, all the effort is likely rewarded. Instead, that was the ballgame. Charlotte won by five.
Take a look under the hood and the underlying numbers are more optimistic for Miami fans who no doubt are reeling right now. Per pbpstats.com, the Heat defense is giving up the fifth-toughest shots in the game. Based on shot location and defender distance, Heat opponents are expected to shoot an effective field goal percentage of just 52.7 percent. Instead, opponents are converting at a 57.8 percent clip — the largest delta by far in the NBA.
Translation: the Heat are on a run of bad luck right now.
Things need to be tightened up, yes. The chemistry between Giannis and Bam isn’t where it needs to be. Wiggs has to be better. But I’m not smashing the panic button, something that apparently doesn’t exist for LeBron’s new team. It’s not the start the Heat wanted but the concern is overblown. They should be fine.
⭐⭐ Minnesota Timberwolves 📈
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 113.7 (11th) | aDRtg 109.4 (4th) | aNet +4.3 (6th)
🗓️ Last week (4-0): W 112-100 vs MIL | W 117-107 @ HOU | W 115-109 @ NOP | W 115-100 vs UTA
✅ Convincing wins: All four — best: @ HOU as 7.5-point dogs (covered by 17.5)
❌ Upsets: None 😊
🤕 Key injuries: Anthony Edwards (knee surgery) out up to two months
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Thu vs DAL | Sat vs CHI
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: None (Thu vs DAL, Sat vs CHI)
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 0 😴
📺 National TV: Thu vs DAL (NBA TV)
⭐⭐ New York Knicks
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 113.3 (14th) | aDRtg 111.2 (10th) | aNet +2.2 (12th)
🗓️ Last week (3-0): W 103-90 vs BKN | W 135-105 vs CHI | W 109-97 @ CLE
✅ Convincing wins: vs CHI (covered by 18.5) | @ CLE (covered by 7.5)
❌ Upsets: None 😊
🤕 Key injuries: None 😊
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Tue vs MIL | Wed vs CLE | Fri @IND | Sun @TOR
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Sun @ TOR
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 1 (Tue vs MIL–Wed vs CLE)
📺 National TV: Wed vs CLE (ESPN) | Fri @ IND (Prime Video)
⭐⭐ Toronto Raptors
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 113.9 (10th) | aDRtg 111.3 (11th) | aNet +2.7 (10th)
🗓️ Last week (2-1): W 125-118 @ LAC | L 109-128 @ DEN | W 121-107 @ MIL
✅ Convincing wins: @ LAC (covered by 0.5) | @ MIL (covered by 10.5)
❌ Upsets: None 😊
🤕 Key injuries: Kawhi Leonard (knee swelling) out, re-evaluation due this week
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Mon vs MEM | Wed vs BOS | Thu @PHI | Sun vs NYK
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Mon vs MEM | Wed vs BOS | Thu @ PHI | Sun vs NYK
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 1 (Wed vs BOS–Thu @PHI)
📺 National TV: None
⭐
Sooo you’re saying there’s a chance.
⭐ Memphis Grizzlies
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 113.7 (12th) | aDRtg 112.6 (18th) | aNet +1.0 (14th)
🗓️ Last week (0-3): L 134-135 (OT) vs NOP | L 103-107 vs IND | L 97-128 vs OKC
✅ Convincing wins: None 🤷
❌ Upsets: vs NOP (favored by 5.5) | vs IND (favored by 5.5)
🤕 Key injuries: None 😊
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Mon @TOR | Wed vs DEN | Fri @NOP | Sat vs BKN
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Mon @ TOR | Wed vs DEN
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 1 (Fri @NOP–Sat vs BKN)
📺 National TV: None
⭐ Portland Trail Blazers
📊 Adjusted Ratings: aORtg 115.1 (5th) | aDRtg 111.0 (9th) | aNet +4.1 (8th)
🗓️ Last week (2-2): W 118-110 @ DEN | W 132-119 @ PHX | L 118-124 @ LAL | L 103-125 vs SAS
✅ Convincing wins: @ DEN as 3.5-point dogs (covered by 11.5) | @ PHX (covered by 10.5)
❌ Upsets: None 😊
🤕 Key injuries: Ja Morant (hamstring strain) out at least four weeks
📅 Upcoming Schedule: Tue vs OKC | Wed vs OKC | Fri @SAC
🥊 Notable Tier matchups: Tue & Wed vs OKC (two-game set)
😫 Upcoming back-to-backs: 1 (Tue vs OKC–Wed vs OKC)
📺 National TV: Tue vs OKC (NBC)
Apologies to: ATL, BRK, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, IND, LAC, MIL, NOP, ORL, PHO, SAC, UTA, WAS.