⭐️ - OKC is still the team to beat - Tom's Title Tiers #25
A fresh new analysis shows OKC's "pure" dominance in the 2025-26 regular season
With the 2025-26 regular season in the books, the Oklahoma City Thunder enter the postseason looking to become the first team since the Golden State Warriors in 2018 to repeat as champion. OKC’s record against teams trying to win will make folks in Oklahoma rejoice.
Welcome to another edition of Tom’s Title Tiers! A reminder: This is my subjective list based largely on objective data. This is not a pure, analytical ranking. You’re here because you want to know what I think, to get inside my brain a little bit. Consider this a weekly report of what I see on film; what I glean from the numbers; what I hear on the phone; what I read in the news; what I feel.
This week’s featured squad: the Oklahoma City Thunder.
A reminder that teams are listed within each tier in alphabetical order, not in order of strength. Here’s a quick rundown of each tier:
Tom’s Title Tiers
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ This is a complete team, no notes.
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Just missing that one thing.
⭐️⭐️⭐️ One move away from being one move away.
⭐️⭐️ So much has to break right.
⭐️ Sooo you’re saying there’s a chance.
Do I still have the Lakers as a title contender? Where do the surging Rockets go? Is OKC alone in the top tier?
Let’s find out.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a complete team, no notes.
Boston Celtics
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 56-26 | 119.9 aORtg (2nd), 112.3 aDRtg (4th), +7.6 aNET (3rd)
Check out last week’s piece about Jayson Tatum making them whole.
Denver Nuggets
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 54-28 | 121.3 (1st), 116.4 (21st), +4.9 (7th)
We witnessed the end of Nikola Jokić’s infamous teammate streak!
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 64-18 | 117.5 (7th), 106.7 (1st), +10.8 (1st)
The end of the NBA regular season was a forgettable one. Teams threw in the towel much earlier this season, leading to a tsunami of G-League rosters muddying up the playoff picture and stars prioritizing postseason health over positioning.
I recently wrote a Yahoo article about how the NBA inadvertantly birthed a subleague that I dubbed the B-League, in which teams were overtly trying to lose games aka tanking aka prioritizing long-term “sustainability” over short-term results.
That Yahoo post focused more on the B-League teams. This post is about the A-League teams.
What if we strip out all the games against B-League teams and strictly look at the 2025-26 Season as if it was just teams trying to win? Would we learn anything about the 21 teams’ power ratings once we cut out the impurities of tanking?
So that’s what I did. I looked at the 20 postseason teams and the New Orleans Pelicans (they don’t have a first-round pick to tank for) and examined how the A-League teams performed against fellow A-League opponents.
It basically amounts to a 58-game season (coincidentally one that I’ve been advocating for!) of teams trying to win. At the top we predictably find the reigning champs and No. 1 overall seed, Oklahoma City.
With a 43-16 (.729) record against A-League opponents, the Thunder are the clear-cut best team in the league against winning opponents. It’s especially impressive considering they’ve suffered more player games lost due to injury than any playoff team, per Spotrac data.
In the overall standings, the Thunder enjoyed a two-game lead on the San Antonio Spurs but that stretched slightly to 2.5 games in the A-League lens. The difference? The Thunder destroyed A-League opponents by an average marging of +9.7. The next-highest team was San Antonio at “just” +5.7.
Check out the breakdown:
If you’re looking into another reason to buy OKC’s title chances, there you go. The team’s .729 WPct against A-League opponents is a 60-win pace over a full 82-game season. Jeebus.
You can knock the Thunder for not playing up to their billing against the Spurs (1-4 record), but man, it’s hard to overlook that overall dominance in the regular season. San Antonio is literally the only team that OKC had a losing record against this season. Said another way, the Thunder had the same win percentage against A-League opponents as the No. 1 seeded Detroit Pistons vs. everybody including tanking teams.
Here’s how it looks in graphic form:
On the other end of the spectrum, there are some teams that look underwhelming by this measure.
Minnesota. Yes, they’ve reached the Conference Finals in the last two seasons, but I don’t blame you if you’re skeptical of their viability this time around. Anthony Edwards’ knee is acting up and the team hasn’t risen to the level of their opponents. They’ve actually registered a negative point differential vs. A-League opponents, a number that is drowned out by their 20-6 +13.2 MOV mark against B-League opponents. That’s quite the swing.
Philadelphia. I haven’t had them on my title tiers for weeks. Though I hadn’t run this analysis before I made that determination, I feel better now for leaving them off the list. A 21-34 (.382) record against A-League opponents obscured by the 24-3 record against the teams trying to league? Yikes.
Cleveland. Gulp. I talked about them on Russillo last week. I wish they played better down the stretch to validate this post.
Charlotte. Though they have a positive point differential against A-League opponents, the team is seven games below .500 against those foes. That incongruity makes me nervous about their play-in. Still, Buzz City is faring just as well or better than the East outside the top four.
All in all, OKC is primed for another title run. Nothing about their season screams fluke or luck. This study solidifies their standing. If they can stay healthy, I don’t see why they can’t repeat. Well, as long as they don’t play Wemby and San Antonio …
San Antonio Spurs
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 62-20 | 118.8 (3rd), 110.8 (3rd), +8.0 (2nd)
Check out a recent post on the Wemby Effect and an earlier feature on Stephon Castle!
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Just missing that one thing.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 52-30 | 118.3 (5th), 114.5 (16th), +3.7 (9th)
Check out last month’s post on the Cavs high-ceiling offense!
Detroit Pistons
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 60-22 | 117.1 (10th), 109.5 (2nd), +7.6 (4th)
I wrote at Yahoo last month about how Cade’s the face of the NBA’s 65-Game Rule problem.
⭐️⭐️⭐️
One move away from being one move away.
Houston Rockets
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Record: 52-30 | 117.4 (8th), 112.4 (5th), +5.0 (6th)
Check out my post on the hidden value of Steven Adams!
New York Knicks
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Record: 53-29 | 118.8 (4th), 112.7 (7th), +6.1 (5th)
⭐️⭐️
So much has to break right.
Atlanta Hawks
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐
Record: 46-36 | 115.1 (14th), 113.0 (9th), +2.2 (12th)
Charlotte Hornets
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐
Record: 44-38 | 118.3 (6th), 113.9 (14th), +4.4 (8th)
Minnesota Timberwolves 📉
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐
Record: 49-33 | 115.5 (13th), 112.8 (8th), +2.7 (10th)
⭐️
Sooo you’re saying there’s a chance.
Los Angeles Clippers
Last week’s rating: ⭐
Record: 42-40 | 116.4 (11th), 115.3 (19th), +1.1 (16th)
Los Angeles Lakers
Last week’s rating: ⭐
Record: 53-29 | 117.1 (9th), 115.7 (20th), +1.4 (14th)
Miami Heat
Last week’s rating: ⭐
Record: 43-39 | 115.7 (12th), 113.8 (13th), +1.9 (13th)
Check out last week’s post about Bam Adebayo’s 82 being helped by Spo’s pace.
Toronto Raptors
Last week’s rating: ⭐
Record: 46-36 | 114.9 (15th), 112.4 (6th), +2.4 (11th)
In alphabetical order:
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ BOS, DEN, OKC, SAS
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ CLE, DET
⭐️⭐️⭐️ HOU, NYK
⭐️⭐️ ATL, CHA, MIN 📉
⭐️ LAC, LAL, MIA, TOR
Sorry: BRK, CHI, DAL, GSW, IND, MEM, MIL, NOP, ORL, PHI, PHX, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS.
A word about the data: I’m using offensive and defensive efficiency data from DunksAndThrees.com, which is adjusted for strength of schedule (aORtg and aDRtg). Raw offensive efficiency may be skewed based on opponents, and Taylor Snarr’s data site does a good job of leveling that out.