⭐️ Healthy Jayson Tatum makes Boston a TOP TIER contender - Tom's Title Tiers #21
The Celtics star has looked strong in his return after 10 months away.
The Celtics got Jayson Tatum back. Do they have their title groove back, too?
Welcome to another edition of Tom’s Title Tiers! A reminder: This is my subjective list based largely on objective data. This is not a pure, analytical ranking. You’re here because you want to know what I think, to get inside my brain a little bit. Consider this a weekly report of what I see on film; what I glean from the numbers; what I hear on the phone; what I read in the news; what I feel.
This week’s featured squad: the Boston Celtics.
A reminder that teams are listed within each tier in alphabetical order, not in order of strength. Here’s a quick rundown of each tier:
Tom’s Title Tiers
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ This is a complete team, no notes.
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Just missing that one thing.
⭐️⭐️⭐️ One move away from being one move away.
⭐️⭐️ So much has to break right.
⭐️ Sooo you’re saying there’s a chance.
Are the Boston Celtics in the top tier? Whose spot do the Charlotte Hornets take?
Let’s get to it.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a complete team, no notes.
Boston Celtics 📈
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 43-21 | 119.4 aORtg (2nd), 112.4 aDRtg (8th), +6.9 aNET (2nd)
This is the shot.
The Jayson Tatum shot that stuck out to me most in his return from a torn Achilles was this one. From Friday’s game:
He sunk it. His first made jumper of the game /season.
It was a great sight given the road it took to get to this point.
But the reason this shot stayed with me is what happened before it:
The false step.
The same mechanism that led to his torn Achilles in his right leg. The same mechanism that snapped Tyrese Haliburton and Damian Lillard’s Achilles as well. There’s some speculation that the rise of the false step and stepbacks have led to an increased risk of Achilles tears, so I was curious to see how he’d move around in this one. Would he use it?
Sure enough, he pushed off his right heel and got to his spot on the corner. He also pushed off his right heel to get to his sidestep just before rising up.
To me, that play tells me that he’s fully confident in his health. To utilize the false step and get to his shot this way is a major milestone in his recovery from the Achilles tear, both physically and mentally. He wowed the audience with a putback dunk on the play before this one, but I’m most interested in how Tatum’s perimeter footwork changes with this injury.
Big picture, it’s hard to imagine Tatum having a better return from the catastrophic injury. The Celtics won both games handily, first against the lowly Mavs and then the rival Cavs on Sunday. Individually, Tatum performed well considering he hadn’t played in an NBA game in almost a year. No G-League ramp up. No training camp. And he looked good.
Tatum surpassed my expectations. He returned three months ahead of Dejounte Murray’s timeline of 13 months, and I wondered if the impending postseason deadline had accelerated his return date. (I wrote up more thoughts at Yahoo last week: read here!).
So far, so good.
Obviously, we’re only two games in, but Celtics fans have to be elated with the Tatum return. His average speed in his debut clocked in at 4.3 mph, which is way wayyy above his norm. Last season he averaged 3.65 mph, delivering one of the “slowest” figures in the NBA. He just doesn’t move around a lot in the drive-and-kick offense. On Friday, he did. Which is a good sign.
They’re moving up to the five-star tier. Tatum looked ready. So do the Celtics.
Cleveland Cavaliers 📈
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 39-25 | 117.4 (6th), 113.2 (13th), +4.2 (7th)
Check out a recent post on Harden boosting their title chances!
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 50-15 | 116.8 (7th), 106.5 (1st), +10.4 (1st)
Check out last month’s post about the Thunder’s vulnerability.
San Antonio Spurs
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 47-17 | 117.8 (4th), 110.9 (3rd), +6.9 (3rd)
Check out a recent post on the Wemby Effect and an earlier feature on Stephon Castle!
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Just missing that one thing.
Denver Nuggets
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 39-25 | 119.9 (1st), 116.6 (22nd), +3.3 (8th)
We witnessed the end of Nikola Jokić’s infamous teammate streak!
Detroit Pistons 📉
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Record: 45-18 | 115.9 (10th), 109.4 (2nd), +6.4 (4th)
Check out last month’s post about Cade Cunningham’s MVP candidacy.
⭐️⭐️⭐️
One move away from being one move away.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Record: 40-24 | 115.7 (12th), 112.8 (11th), +2.9 (10th)
New York Knicks
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐⭐
Record: 41-24 | 118.4 (3rd), 112.1 (5th), +6.3 (5th)
⭐️⭐️
So much has to break right.
Houston Rockets
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐
Record: 39-24 | 116.8 (8th), 112.2 (6th), +4.6 (6th)
Check out last month’s post on the hidden value of Steven Adams!
Los Angeles Lakers
Last week’s rating: ⭐⭐
Record: 39-25 | 116.4 (9th), 116.0 (21st), +0.4 (18th)
Check out last week’s post about The Luka-LeBron Problem.
⭐️
Sooo you’re saying there’s a chance.
Charlotte Hornets 📈
Last week’s rating: N/R
Record: 32-33 | 117.4 (5th), 114.8 (17th), +2.7 (11th)
Welcome to The Tiers, Buzz City! We’ve been waiting for you. Almost put you at the two-star tier, but Sunday’s showing in PHX didn’t give me enough.
Miami Heat
Last week’s rating: ⭐
Record: 36-29 | 114.6 (13th), 111.6 (4th), +3.0 (9th)
Los Angeles Clippers
Last week’s rating: ⭐
Record: 31-32 | 115.8 (11th), 114.9 (18th), +0.9 (15th)
Orlando Magic 📈
Last week’s rating: N/R
Record: 35-28 | 114.0 (17th), 112.6 (9th), +1.5 (14th)
Toronto Raptors
Last week’s rating: ⭐
Record: 36-27 | 113.7 (18th), 112.2 (7th), +1.5 (13th)
In alphabetical order:
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ BOS 📈, CLE 📈, OKC, SAS
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ DEN, DET 📉
⭐️⭐️⭐️ MIN, NYK
⭐️⭐️ HOU, LAL
⭐️ CHA 📈, MIA, LAC, ORL 📈, TOR
Sorry: ATL, BRK, CHI, DAL, GSW 📉, IND, MEM, MIL, NOP, PHI 📉, PHX, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS.
A word about the data: I’m using offensive and defensive efficiency data from DunksAndThrees.com, which is adjusted for strength of schedule (aORtg and aDRtg). Raw offensive efficiency may be skewed based on opponents, and Taylor Snarr’s data site does a good job of leveling that out.